Within this positive backdrop, Masan Group (HOSE: MSN) stands out, as the company is on track to achieve over 90% of its 2025 profit target within the first nine months, reinforcing investor confidence in the sector’s growth outlook.
Domestic Demand Drives Retail Stocks
According to SSI Research, among 42 listed companies analyzed in its Q3/2025 report, overall net profit is expected to increase 26.9% year-on-year, a notable improvement compared to the 14% growth recorded in the first half of the year. Profit growth is also projected to rise 2.1% quarter-on-quarter. Within this recovery trend, consumer and retail stocks have emerged as key beneficiaries, supported by stronger household spending and government stimulus measures.
The VAT reduction from 10% to 8%, applied from July 2025 through the end of 2026, directly strengthens purchasing power. With domestic consumption contributing over 60% of Vietnam’s GDP, this policy not only sustains short-term recovery momentum but also lays the foundation for long-term growth. In addition, the ongoing shift from traditional markets to modern retail channels continues to be a structural driver, enabling companies to expand market share and improve profit margins.
Retail Leaders Deliver Strong Results
According to Masan, in the first nine months of 2025, the Group’s net profit after tax and minority interest (NPAT Pre-MI) is estimated to have exceeded 90% of its base-case annual target. This strong performance positions Masan well for a potential breakthrough in Q4-the peak consumption season-reinforcing the outlook for not only meeting but potentially surpassing its full-year goals.
A key growth engine has been WinCommerce (WCM), Masan’s modern retail platform operating over 4,200 WinMart/WinMart+/WiN stores nationwide, with 75% of new outlets opened in rural areas. In the first eight months of 2025, WCM recorded VND 25 trillion in revenue, up 16.1% year-on-year, including VND 3.57 trillion in August alone (+24.2%), underscoring the strong rebound in domestic consumption and the effectiveness of its rural expansion strategy.
Masan MEATLife (MML), another key subsidiary, also delivered solid post-restructuring growth. In August 2025, MML sold 14,007 tons of branded meat products (+12.9%), achieved VND 999 billion in revenue (+11.1%), and increased net profit by 60.5% to VND 35 billion. EBIT and EBITDA also improved, highlighting enhanced operational efficiency and stronger margins-reflecting the growing consumer shift toward branded, traceable, and safe meat products.
Meanwhile, Masan High-Tech Materials (MHT) benefited from a recovery in tungsten prices, and Phuc Long Heritage (PLH) continued to enhance customer experience and sales performance. Masan Consumer (MCH) is expected to recover strongly from 2026 as the FMCG market stabilizes.
Long-Term Outlook: Retail as a Growth Engine
In its September 2025 report, Bao Viet Securities (BVSC) maintained an OUTPERFORM rating for MSN, with a target price of VND 106,000 per share, well above the current market level. BVSC highlighted Masan’s multi-sector synergy-across WinCommerce, Masan MEATLife, Masan High-Tech Materials, and Phuc Long-as the key growth driver for the Group.
Nonetheless, analysts noted several short-term challenges: intensified competition in retail, fluctuations in input and operating costs, and the implementation of new regulations such as e-invoicing. These factors require businesses to balance network expansion with operational efficiency to protect margins.
Over the long term, domestic consumption demand and the continued shift toward modern retail formats are expected to remain the main growth engines. As a result, the retail stock group is projected to stay among the most attractive investment themes in Vietnam’s stock market heading into late 2025 and early 2026.